Editorial — Lots of time for changes in this election

September 21, 2015 · 0 Comments

There’s still a little more than a month before Canadians go to the polls in the federal election, and we detect a lot of apprehension out there when it comes to making predictions.
The fact is we’re reluctant to go out on a proverbial limb.
The latest poll numbers indicate a statistical dead heat between the three main parties. It seems there are new numbers just about every day.
At this stage, it looks unlikely that any of the three parties are going to be able to win enough seats in the House of Commons to form a majority government. And with all due respect to Elizabeth May and the party she leads, we don’t think anyone is seriously pondering the possibility of a Green government after Oct. 19.
We would be surprised to see this current three-way tie continue until election day, although it is true that strange things can sometimes happen in elections.
But trends can develop, and there’s still lots of time for one of the three leading parties to get into trouble.
We have to wonder whether perhaps the New Democrats under Thomas Mulcair may have peaked in the opinion polls too soon.
The last couple of weeks have been rough for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives, with scandals involving the Senate and refugees. It is possible that those issues will be dismissed as old news in three or four weeks time?
We’ve been hearing plenty of advertisements telling us that Justin Trudeau is “just not ready.” Well there are two former prime ministers who seem to disagree, and have stepped into the spotlight with him. There don’t appear to be any former PMs ready to stand up and cheer for Harper.
As we already stated, there’s still lots of time for just about anything to happen. A debate is scheduled for tonight (Thursday), and it’s always possible that a knock-out blow could be delivered in such a session. That’s just what happened in 1984, when Brian Mulroney basically put John Turner out of the race in just such a debate.
Aside for debates, there’s still a month to go, meaning plenty of time for one of the leaders to dive, or climb.
And it’s frustratingly hard to know which, if any leader is going to do what.